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Series Prediction: Canadiens vs Lightning | Habs Notepad

Chris G
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Series Prediction: Canadiens vs Lightning | Habs Notepad
Artturi Lehkonen, Brayden Point (Photo via NHL.com

Habs News: Montreal Canadiens, Dominique Ducharme, Luke Richardson, Marc Bergevin, Carey Price, Tampa Bay Lightning, Stanley Cup, NHL

Artturi Lehkonen, Brayden Point (Photo via NHL.com)

ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA | LAVAL, QC. — The Canadiens are four wins away from winning the franchise’s 25th Stanley Cup. If you’re a Habs fan, you’re already aware of this  even before reading this column. It’s been 28 years since I’ve been able to write it, hence I’m not passing up the opportunity.

I’m old enough to have been around for the Stanley Cup wins in 1986, and 1993. I was too young to have any recollection from the 1986 victory besides videos, and research that I’ve done.

In 1993, I was a young teen when the Canadiens won 10 overtime games on their way to hoist the Stanley Cup after beating the Kings. On the morning of June 11th, my elder brother told me what any responsible sibling would tell his younger brother. He suggested that I take a ‘day off’ from school and head downtown with him for the Stanley Cup parade.

Looking back, I was probably too young to be in the sea of people that were on the streets to celebrate the victory with their favourite players.

I’m glad I took my brother’s advice. At the time, I didn’t realize that it would take at least another 28 years before the opportunity would come up again. If I had known, I would have made the most of the moments created by the playoff run.

I hope that my high school teachers now understand that, when I said that I was sick on June 11th, 1993, I was actually making memories that I’ll always cherish.

Whether this is your first Canadiens Cup run or if you’ve been lucky to watch this team win several Stanley Cups, cherish the moment, and enjoy it regardless of the outcome.

Series Storylines

Montreal flew to Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon in preparation for Monday night’s game at Amelie Arena. The Lightning have won two of the three previous playoff series against the Canadiens. Tampa Bay won the last series in six games against Montreal in second round of the 2015 playoffs. Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Petry and Carey Price are the only current Habs players that participated in that series.

The Canadiens are coming off a six-game series win against the Golden Knights that concluded on Thursday night, while the Lightning were pushed to a seven-game series by the Islanders that ended on Friday.

Stanley Cup Final schedule

There are a lot of storylines coming out of this series. Former Habs Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev have prominent roles on Tampa Bay’s blue line. Both players played a total of four games in the Canadiens organization, however were each involved in significant transactions.

In Quebec, Marc Bergevin and Julien BriseBois will also be in the spotlight as they are the only Quebec-born general managers in the NHL. Prior to joining the Lightning organization, BriseBois spent nine years in the Canadiens holding various roles in management.

“It’s a special opportunity to participate in the Stanley Cup Final and try to bring the trophy back to Montreal. I’m feeling a lot of different emotions, I’m a little nervous, but excited. I’m especially proud to have the opportunity to win the Cup with Montreal. It would be the ultimate dream for me. I could retire after that,” Bergevin said.

Dominique Ducharme confirmed that he will return behind the bench for Friday’s match (Game 3), after completing his 14-day quarantine. Joel Armia didn’t travel to Tampa Bay on Sunday due to the NHL’s COVID protocol. The club will provide more details on Monday.

Stopping Lightning’s Attack

The Lightning are known for their ability to put the puck in the back of the net. Since the start of the postseason, they have scored an average of 3.22 goals per game, essentially matching their 3.21 goals average during the 56-game regular season.

“We’ve played some offensive-minded teams and we’ve handled them well. This is maybe even another step higher in that offensive potency that they have, but it’s another team in the NHL,” Luke Richardson said. In the regular season, the Maple Leafs and Golden Knights outscored the Lightning.

Brayden Point leads the league with 14 goals scored in the playoffs. In their run, the Canadiens successfully prevented Toronto’s Auston Matthews, Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor, and Vegas’ Max Pacioretty from causing significant damage in the series. The three players finished first, ninth, and 17th respectively in goals scored during regular season.

“He’s a highly-skilled player. Every team we’ve faced has a player that is very similar to that, so we don’t have to change our game. But, you have to know when he’s on the ice and make it difficult for him, whether that’s taking away his time and space or being physical on him. We’ve faced players with that ability before, so I don’t think it changes anything on our mental approach,” Petry said about Point.

The line of Philip Danault, Gallagher, and Artturi Lehkonen will have the responsibility of facing Tampa Bay’s top line. “He’s very fast, he’s good in tight areas of the ice, and creates himself a lot of space,” added Danault about Point. Nikita Kucherov plays on the right of Point, and currently leads the league with 27 points in 18 games.

Goaltending Duel

If you’re compiling a list of reasons that Montreal made it to the Stanley Cup final, Carey Price‘s name should be on the top of the list. He’s been playing at an elite level since the start of the post season.

“He’s a big-game player, he rises to the occasion, he does extremely well under pressure,” Bergevin explained the goalie’s performance in the playoffs.

“Whether you’re up in the game or down in the game, he’s always calm and collected. His movements seem effortless. He doesn’t get rattled in the net. His calming presence sends a calming message to our whole team,” Petry spoke about Price’s impact. “Knowing you have a guy like that behind you, it’s something special.”

“It’s just excitement. It’s been something that we’ve been working towards our whole lives. We’re finally getting the opportunity and we’re just looking forward to it,” the goalie said. An excited and motivated Carey Price is bad news for Tampa Bay.

The Canadiens will also face an elite goaltender in Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’s been exceptional in the Lightning’s playoff run. Vasilevskiy finished first in the recently published NHLPA player poll for best goalie.

“He’s been playing great, he’s a big body, battles hard,” Price said on Vasilevskiy.

“He’s a great goaltender, he’s been playing great for them. We’re just going to have to keep finding a way. I don’t think we necessarily have to change too much of our game. The way we play is being consistent with ourselves. We score nice goals, we score goals in the dirty areas, all those little things. I don’t think we’re necessarily going to change anything. We’re just going to keep doing what we’re doing,” Tyler Toffoli said.

Stanley Cup Experience

The Tampa Bay Lightning will be looking to win the Stanley Cup for a second consecutive season. It’s not an easy task in any major professional sports with the arrival of salary caps, which leads to frequent roster changes. The Lightning are back in the Final with essentially the same roster. They know what it takes to win it all.

Bergevin assembled Stanley Cup experience via acquisitions since the team’s elimination in last season’s bubble. It wasn’t a coincidence. The general manager purposely targeted veterans with that experience.

After the Canadiens were trailing 3-1 versus the Maple Leafs, the coaching staff asked the veterans including Eric Staal, Corey Perry, and Shea Weber to speak to the players about not taking the opportunity for granted. Former Canadien captain Bob Gainey also addressed the players. The group has responded well to the messages.

“It’s been a pretty crazy ride. This season has been unbelievable. You just want to cap it off by winning that championship. Being my second year, some of the guys haven’t even been to the Final yet, and they’ve been playing for many years, so we want to take full advantage of that,” Nick Suzuki said.

Underdogs Again

It’s not a surprise that the Canadiens are the underdogs (again) to win this series. The club has used the doubts from the outside as motivation, and it started from the coach.

“[Ducharme]’s instilled the culture that ‘we belong here’, ‘believe in ourselves’, ‘we’re not going to take no for an answer’,” Richardson said.

“We believe that we aren’t the underdog. We’re very confident in ourselves and what we’ve accomplished. But, in the same respect, it’s fine. We’ve kind of tuned out the outside of the dressing room and let people say what they want to say. I’ve heard the players say it. We don’t even have to say it to them. We hear them talking about it. That’s a great attitude to have. We don’t really use it as a motivation to prove people wrong, but you can kind of have a little bit of an ignorance in you that you want to show people that we belong more than they’re wrong,” added the assistant coach.

Marc Bergevin has embarked on that belief. “We know we’re facing a tough opponent that knows how to win. It wouldn’t be right for me to say that we aren’t underdogs. We are underdogs, and that’s fine. We’ve lived with that title all season long,” said the general manager.

Series Prediction

As noted earlier, the Habs goaltender is the main reason that the team is four wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup. He’s not the only reason. Price also played at an elite level during last year’s postseason, and he couldn’t do it on his own.

“Our character. You definitely need talent and skill to reach this point, too, but you can’t win a Stanley Cup on talent alone. We have a lot of character, and our leadership group deserves the credit. The guys care for each other,” Bergevin explained the team’s success.

“We all just really enjoy being around each other. We enjoy being on the ice together. There’s not one guy in the room that doesn’t really have a great relationship with all his teammates, whether it’s the older guys with a guy who has been around for a couple of months in Cole, or guys who have played together for years here. Everyone has a great relationship. That’s why we’ve had success, and we enjoy going to battle together,” Ben Chiarot noted.

I believe that the Lightning will come out victorious in a long series against the Canadiens. The goaltending will be a wash because they’re both elite. The special teams battle shouldn’t have an impact in the series. Tampa Bay’s 37.7 percent power play will face Montreal’s 93.5 percent penalty kill, while the Canadiens’ 20.9 percent on the power play will face the Lightning’s 83 percent penalty kill.

Tampa Bay’s offence will be the difference maker. The Lightning have five players with more points than Toffoli’s team-leading 14. It will be the toughest test for Montreal’s four-man defensive unit.

If you haven’t been keeping track, I picked the Maple Leafs, Jets, and Golden Knights to win in the first the three rounds. You’re welcome.

Canadiens Connection podcast

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By Chris G., Senior Writer
All Habs Hockey Magazine
Copyright © 2021 Rocket Sports

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