MONTREAL, QC.– It’s the NHL Entry Draft — win the Stanley Cup, as the Boston Bruins did, and you pick last, but you have the Cup! A pitiful season (insert your choice of Edmonton, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey or the NY Islanders here) provides the year-end consolation prize of a coveted top draft pick. Finish in the middle of the pack and exit the first round of the playoffs, like the Montreal Canadiens and you’ll pick 17th.
Selecting in the middle of the draft order is often viewed as the worst of all possibilities. Many in the media bemoan a mid-draft placement arguing that the team can’t hope to secure the impact player who will make a difference. Early in the 2009-10 season, one Montreal radio personality took the extreme position of recommending that the Canadiens should “tank the season” to grab a high draft spot.
The sports radio broadcaster issued a plan that called for the Habs to engage in a massive sell-off of veteran players in an intentional dive to the bottom of the standings. Of course, following his plan would have wiped out the Canadiens exciting playoff run to the conference finals in Spring 2010. Fortunately Pierre Gauthier wasn’t listening.
So, is it really necessary to pick in the top five of the draft to advance past mediocrity?
Looking back to the 2010 draft, it’s easy to see that the first two picks, Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin will be impact players in the years to come. But one year removed from the draft, who are the top prospects in the NHL? Consensus is that Braden Schenn is the best player not playing in the NHL right now — Philadelphia’s Paul Holmgren valued Schenn so highly that he traded Flyer captain, Mike Richards, to get him.
Looking at rest of The Hockey News’ top five prospects you’ll find two players taken in the top five in 2010: Ryan Johansen is ranked second to Schenn (selected fourth overall by Columbus in 2010) and Erik Gudbranson, is ranked fourth (taken by Florida 3rd overall in 2010.) The other two spots in THN’s top prospects are taken by Evgeny Kuznetsov and Vladimir Tarasenko both drafted in 2010 outside the top five. Kuznetsov was selected 26th overall and Tarasenko was taken with the 16th pick.
Beyond this small example, we can all list numerous players who were drafted outside the top five and have been superstars in the NHL. As an organizational strategy, tanking a season to gain a lottery pick is frankly foolish. Drafting players who will succeed at the NHL-level requires scouting talent, an effective development program and a measure of good fortune.
Since the Trevor Timmins era, the Canadiens have consistently proven to be one of the top teams in the league at spotting talent. A comprehensive study by HabsWatch, an occasional contributor here at All Habs, showed that the Canadiens have a much better than average success rate at drafting beyond the first round — he ranked the organization third. In their Februrary 2011 issue THN reported that Montreal is the best team of the past decade in securing talent — they slipped a little in terms of developing players but still are ranked third in the NHL.
Supporters of the Canadiens need not dispair that their team doesn’t have a top five pick in tonight’s draft — let’s not forget the pain that fanbases have to endure to have their team earn the honour. Neither do fans have to sign on to wacky schemes cooked up by self-promoting radio hosts. If the Habs make a wise selection based on talent (and not a political choice like in 2009) you can expect to see him donning the CH in a few short years.
I feel Habs have numerous promising picks in the system; such as, Tinordi, Gallagher, Ellis, Bornival, Kristo, Bennett and LeBlanc, and am quite pleased with recent draft results by Timmons and company.
Am very curious how they go with 17th pick? Jensen maybe or trade down for Jaskin, either would be dandy by me, if Shiefele and McNeill are gone before 17th.
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