Habs News: Montreal Canadiens, Tomas Tatar, Paul Byron, Philip Danault, Joel Armia, Marc Bergevin, Salary Cap
ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA | LAVAL, QC. — According to the recent Canadiens fan survey results that were published by The Athletic, the respondents were the most excited about the additions of Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli to the organization.
Anderson’s acquisition led to him signing a seven-year contract with a cap hit of $5.5-million, and Toffoli agreed to a four-year deal that will pay him an average of $4.25-million per season. Those two moves along with the $4.35-million and $3.5-million contracts to Jake Allen and Joel Edmundson respectively, has pushed the Canadiens to the salary cap.
Montreal hasn’t been near the upper cap limit in recent history. The closest they have been to the cap was in 2016-17, when they finished the season $470,952 below the cap. Since then, the organization has spent $7.1-million (2017-18), $8-million (2018-19), and $4.4-million (2019-20) below the maximum.
With the Canadiens ranked third in the league with $1.34-billion value according to Forbes, the underspending drew criticism by the fan base. Marc Bergevin has said over the last couple of years that he has permission from Geoff Molson to spend to the cap, but will not use that space to overpay players.
“Spending to the cap for the sake of it doesn’t do any good,” Molson told The Gazette in an interview published last week. “Do it when you’re ready to do some damage as a team. It has nothing to do with the fact we’re not making any revenue. It never has been about saving money. It’s about being smart.”
The general manager had mentioned over the last three seasons that the available cap space is an asset. The only time that I think he used it as an asset was when he acquired Steve Masson as part of the Joel Armia trade with the Jets, and then immediately bought out the goalie’s contract.
Buffer Needed
A debate can be made for how the Canadiens current cap situation could have been avoided by Bergevin. We can make a good case that it’s due the money tied to Allen, or the average annual value to the contracts signed by Anderson, Toffoli, or Edmundson.
The reason that I’m going to say put the team in this situation is the decision to buyout Karl Alzner. This move cost Montreal $3.9-million on the cap space for the upcoming season. From a pure hockey perspective, this move wasn’t necessary as Alzner would have spent the season in Laval, and the Canadiens would currently have $3-million buffer from the upper limit. I suspect that at the time, Bergevin wasn’t expecting to sign Toffoli as an unrestricted free agent.
Cap Friendly currently lists Montreal with $383,691 of cap space for the upcoming season with 21 players on the roster. With the schedule expected to be condensed for the 2020-21 season, it’s highly unlikely that the team will carry only one extra player on the roster.
When Bergevin met the media to discuss the Toffoli signature, he said that they have a couple of scenarios ready, and it will be easy for them to be under the cap in time for the start of the season. The general manager also said that he likes to have a buffer in order to make moves in case of injury.
I will continue my habit of giving the Canadiens advice free of charge in the sections below. The four following scenarios would give Bergevin at least $1.7-million of available cap space for a 22-player roster.
The scenarios are listed in the order that would give Montreal the most room below the upper limit, and the illustrated lines are based on my recent lineup projections.
Scenario 1: Trading Tomas Tatar
Tomas Tatar is on the final year of his contract that has an average annual value of $4.8-million. Being the team’s leading scorer since the start of the 2018-19 season with 119 points in 148 games, I expect Tatar wanting a raise for his new deal.
He has been a non-factor in his last two postseason appearances, collecting two points with Vegas in 2017-18, and two points in 10 games with Montreal in the bubble. Two appearances don’t make a career, however it raises a warning flag.
With the limited cap space, and the number of players needing new contracts at the end of the 2020-21 season, I think that the Canadiens will not be looking at re-signing Tatar.
By trading Tatar, Claude Julien can move Toffoli to play to the left of Philip Danault and Brendan Gallagher on the top line, and Armia would be bumped up to a more appropriate the third line spot. The roster in the table below would give Bergevin $3.5-million buffer on the cap.
Scenario 2: Trading Paul Byron
Everyone loves Paul Byron and his work ethic. It’s the reason that he has an “A” on his jersey. In his time with the organization, Byron has been used on all four lines, whether on the wings or as centre. He has been the most effective in a bottom-six role, and is assigned time on the penalty kill. Since the 2018-19 season, Byron’s consistency has suffered.
Byron has had several significant injuries since being picked up from waivers by the Habs. In three of the five seasons with the organization, Byron has missed at least 20 games due to injuries.
The inconsistency and injury issues are certainly a concern for the Canadiens with three years remaining on his contract that pays him on average $3.4-million.
In the lineup, Byron can be replaced on the fourth line by Ryan Poehling or Jordan Weal. Julien has options to replace Byron on the penalty kill such as Toffoli, Poehling, Nick Suzuki, and Jake Evans. The roster in the table below would give Bergevin $2.1-million buffer on the cap.
Scenario 3: Trading Phillip Danault
Phillip Danault has been used as the team’s number one centre over the last two seasons. His trio with Tatar and Gallagher has been Montreal’s best line since 2018-19 season, and arguably one of the top offensive lines in the league. Danault has also been used Julien’s key player on the penalty kill in that span.
Danault will be playing the final year of his contract that comes with a $3.1-million cap hit. The Canadiens got good value from his current deal, and Danault will be looking for a significant pay raise.
In an interview last week with TVA Sports, the Canadiens general manager said that the two sides started negotiating in September, but were put on hold when talks weren’t going the way that both sides wanted. If Bergevin feels that he won’t be able to reach a deal with Danault, he will be looking at trading him.
Without Danault on the roster, the centre line becomes fragile. If the Canadiens want to make the playoffs, there would be no room for error or injury to Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi. Julien would also be losing his most trusted center to take important faceoffs.
The roster in the table below would give Bergevin $1.8-million buffer on the cap.
Scenario 4: Trading Joel Armia
Joel Armia will be headed into the final year of his contract that counts for $2.6-million against the salary cap. With the current roster, Armia is projected to play on the fourth line, a spot that I feel would waste his skillset. Armia is strong with the puck, can score 15 to 20 goals, and play on the penalty kill. The additions of Anderson and Toffoli make Armia expendable.
In this scenario, Weal would be sent to Laval to increase the cap room and replaced by a player making the league minimum. The roster in the table below would give Bergevin $1.7-million buffer on the cap.
Easier said than done
The cap room that would be available for each scenario was in the scenario that Montreal wouldn’t get a roster player in return. This means that the Canadiens would be primarily looking to obtain draft picks for their players. With the salary cap remaining flat, a lot of teams will be tight against the maximum for the 2020-21 season.
From the Canadiens perspective, trading Byron or Armia would have the least impact to their lineup as they’re projected to start the year on the fourth line. Trading Danault would have the biggest impact to the team.
The hardest scenario would be to trade Tatar. There are currently only 11 teams in the league that have enough room to add him to their payroll without removing a player from their roster. This the only scenario that Montreal can retain a small portion of salary, or to acquire a player making close to the league minimum.
How easy would it be for Bergevin to make one of these moves? I think it’s a lot harder than the general manager said that it would be. While trying to figure out how to get his roster compliant, he will need to keep an eye out on how any moves will impact the upcoming expansion draft.
Note: All salary cap information courtesy of CapFriendly.
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