Home Game Day Weekly forecast First Round Forecast: Canadiens vs Senators Playoff Series Preview

First Round Forecast: Canadiens vs Senators Playoff Series Preview

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First Round Forecast: Canadiens vs Senators Playoff Series Preview
(Photo by Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images)

All Habs Weekly Forecast gives a first look of the week ahead for your Montreal Canadiens. Hockey writer Ty Prater maps out the schedule, provides a statistical comparison of each matchup, identifies players to watch, as well as strengths and weaknesses of each team and provides links to our game reports for the season series. Bookmark this page and use it as your guide for each game in the Canadiens schedule this week. The Weekly Forecast combined with our popular Game Day feature provides you with the best information available as you prepare for puck drop.

by Tyler Prater, Hockey Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

(Photo by Francois Lacasse/NHLI via Getty Images)

LEXINGTON, KY — This week the Canadiens start the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs! Montreal will face Ottawa in a best-of-seven series starting Wednesday in Montreal.

Calendar: April 13 – April 19
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
 
Ottawa_Senators_logo Ottawa_Senators_logo  
HOME HOME AWAY

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Montreal Canadiens
  • The Habs (0-0-0) finished the regular season (50-22-10) with 110 points – second in the league. Montreal has home ice advantage in the series with the first two games being played at the Bell Centre as well as games five and seven, if necessary.
Top three
  • Carey Price.  Price has been Montreal’s best player (and the league’s best player) all season and will be one of, if not the biggest factor for the Habs’ success in the postseason. He finished the season with 44 wins (1st), a save percentage of .933 (1st), and a goals against average of 1.96 (1st).
  • Max Pacioretty. Pacioretty is listed as day-to-day but may be ready to return by Wednesday. He has not yet been cleared for contact. Pacioretty led the Habs all season in points with 67 and finished the regular season with 37 goals (5th) and 302 shots (3rd).
  • P.K. Subban. Subban always finds a way to turn it up a notch in the playoffs, picking up 14 points in 17 games last year. He finished the season with a career high, 60 points and should be ready to make some big contributions on both offence and defence.
Strengths (+) Weaknesses (-)
  • The Habs have had great goaltending and defence all season long, finishing the regular season with the best goals against average in the league at 2.24.
  • Montreal struggles to score goals and get shots on net. They finished the season with an average of 2.61 goals per game (20th) and 28.5 shots per game (25th).

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Ottawa Senators
  • The Senators (0-0-0) finished the regular season (43-26-13) with 99 points. Ottawa had a strong push at the end of the season, just making it into the playoffs their last game of the regular season with a 3-1 win against Philadelphia.
Top three
  • Erik Karlsson. The Sens captain is an extremely dangerous offensive defenseman, finishing the season with 66 points and 292 shots (4th). He also scored two goals the last time Ottawa played Montreal.
  • Mark Stone.  Stone had a huge year with Ottawa, finished the season with 64 points in 80 games, shattering he career high, eight points in 19 games with the Sens in the 2013-14 season.
  • Andrew Hammond.  Called up late in the season, Hammond quickly made a name for himself winning 20 of his 23 starts games with only one regulation loss and a save percentage of .941. He also boasts a goals against average of 1.79.
Strengths (+) Weaknesses (-)
  • The Senators have a lot of scoring threats and finished the season with an average of 2.83 goals per game (9th) and 31.0 shots per game (9th).
  • Ottawa gives up a lot of scoring chances, finishing the season with an average of 32.1 shots against per game (25th). They also struggle to gain possession of the puck with a faceoff win percentage of just 48.2 per cent.
Matchup
First round playoff series begins Wednesday April 15 | Montreal, QC.

CANADIENS  (2014-15 regular season statistics) SENATORS
110 (2nd) Points 99 (13th)
26-9-6 Home record 23-13-5
24-13-4 Away record 20-13-8
2.61 (20th) Goals per game 2.83 (9th)
2.24 (1st) Goals Against per game 2.54 (13th)
28.5 (25th) Shots per game 31.0 (9th)
30.1 (21st) Shots Against per game 32.1 (25th)
16.5% (23rd) Power-play 16.8% (22nd)
83.7% (7th) Penalty-kill 82.9% (11th)
48.4% Corsi for percentage 51.1%
48.7% Fenwick for percentage 49.6%

Season Series

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History / Rivalry
  • Let’s be honest, the so-called ‘417 rivalry’ doesn’t compare to the Canadiens bitter and historic rivalries with the Maple Leafs and Bruins. But given the proximity of the two cities, the 2013 playoff series and the frequency of seeing each other as Atlantic division foes, there is a budding rivalry.  Former Senators coach drew the ire of Canadiens fans referring to Raphael Diaz as number “61” during the 2013 playoff series.  After the Senators Eric Gryba put Lars Eller out of the playoffs with a vicious head shot (in a game Ottawa would go on to win), the cover of the Ottawa Sun read “First Blood Sens.”
The Canadiens win if…
  • Montreal has to get shots on Hammond. The Habs have struggled to get shots all season but they need to step things up in the postseason. Hammond has only played 25 games in the NHL and his only playoff experience was last year with the Binghamton Senators where he went 1-3. If the Habs can get quality shots, they’ll be heading to round two.
The Senators win if…
  • Ottawa has everything going their way right now. They’ve got a lot of momentum after overcoming a 14-point deficit in the standings to secure a playoff spot and a strong new goalie they can fall back on. Hammond has been put into a similar position as Tokarski was last year, being a young goalie with little to no playoff experience.
  • The Sens are going to have to have strong leadership from Karlsson and Turris as well as a good defence to help Hammond ease into the playoff mentality.
Quick facts  – Carey Price Quick facts – Andrew Hammond
  • The Canadiens are in the bottom third in the league in possession statistics, just below the Edmonton Oilers.  Carey Price’s MVP-season has hidden all the warts. Price led the NHL in goals saved above average at 36.70 (number of goals saved above what an average goaltender with the same team could accomplish.)
  • Andrew Hammond had a record of 7-13-0 in the AHL this season with a 3.51 GAA and a .898 Sv%. Hammond has never played a NHL playoff game and has just four games of post-season experience (1-3 record) with the Binghamton Senators.
Advantage
Which team has the edge?

CANADIENS  (Category) SENATORS
Forwards X
X Defense
X Goaltending
 push Power-play push
 push Penalty kill  push
Possession  X
Coaching  X
 X Intangibles
 X Overall

Predictions – All Habs Hockey Magazine contributors

  • Ty Prater  |  Canadiens win in 6 games
  • Erica T. |  Canadiens win in 7 games
  • Brian C. |  Senators win in 6 games
  • Amy J. |  Canadiens win in 6 games
  • J.D. Lagrange | Canadiens win in 6 games
  • Michael Ham-Fan | Canadiens win in 5 games
  • Rick Stephens | Canadiens win in 6 games
  • Shannon Penfound | Canadiens win in 7 games
  • Ryan Skilton | Senators win in 6 games
  • Chris G. | Canadiens win in 7 games

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