by Jordan Lambe, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
BAIE VERTE, NL. — The NHL season is underway and owners got their first taste of fantasy hockey action for this season. We have been happy to get you ready for fantasy hockey with our three-part series. In my final segment, I look at Safe Bets.
All Habs Fantasy Sports offers the opportunity to play with fellow fans (we also offer fantasy football too.) With leagues already in action, you may think you are out of luck to play this season. But we have a new game for you to participate in with your friends and All Habs writers.
NHL Pick ‘Em presented by All Habs Hockey Magazine allows you to predict the outcomes of all NHL games and compete for the top spot on our leaderboard. It’s fun and it’s free. Try it here today!
I welcome your comments on each one of the Fantasy Hockey Primer articles. If you wish to join our All Habs Fantasy Sports group on Facebook to talk fantasy sports, you will find the link here.
As all fantasy hockey GMs know, smart drafting, trades and pickups are imperative to succeeding. While Part 1 and Part 2 of the Fantasy Hockey Primer trio outlined Busts and Breakouts, Part 3 of the Fantasy Hockey Primer focuses on the players that offer very little risk. These so-called “safe bets” are almost guarantee to produce at a consistent rate, which offers very little risk but a limited reward. As the injury bug makes it’s way around your fantasy team throughout the season, it is extremely important to have players who regularly produce and seem to have an unlimited supply of bug spray.
Most often the players who fall under the “safe bet” category have been playing in the NHL a number of seasons, remained relatively injury free, and have proved that they can be relied upon. Without further delay, here are my top candidates for the players that can be entrusted to contribute regularly and steer clear of the dreaded IR positions.
LEFT WING
Tyler Ennis
Ok, first things first, the Buffalo Sabres were absolutely terrible last season. They scored an NHL’s worst 161 goals, and Arizona was the nearest to them with nine more goals over the span of the season. When a team only scores 161 goals over an 82 game season, it isn’t a surprise that the highest scorer on the team, Tyler Ennis, only has 46 points. To put that into perspective for all you Habs fans, the Canadiens has seven players that equaled or topped Tyler Ennis’ point production last year.
Although Ennis’ build couldn’t be farther away from that of Zdeno Chara or Dustin Byfuglien (he comes into the 2015-16 season at 5’9 and 169 pounds according to his NHL.com profile), he is still a very effective player. Known mostly for his speed and skill, Ennis has been producing at a very consistent rate over the past 3 seasons. Below are his base stats over the last three seasons:
| Games | Goals | Points | Points/Game | Shots | |
| 2012-13 | 47 | 10 | 31 | 0.66 | 108 |
| 2013-14 | 80 | 21 | 43 | 0.54 | 210 |
| 2014-15 | 78 | 20 | 46 | 0.59 | 185 |
As you can see, even when the Sabres’ team dipped to the cellar of the NHL standings over the past two seasons, Ennis’ point production only suffered slightly. As he enters this upcoming season, turning 26 years of age and entering his prime, he is expected to match or increase his career best as the Sabres have made huge upgrades around him over the offseason. Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane, Jack Eichel and Cody Franson could help the Sabres improve an offense that in theory couldn’t get any worse.
My Prediction: Although Ennis may see a slight decrease in his ice time from 18:51 per game, I really think he can take his offensive to another level this season with some help from the new acquisitions. I’m predicting 25 goals and 60 points, with over 20 of those coming on the powerplay. Also take note than Ennis can easily top 200 shots and average over a hit a game if your league uses those stats. If he manages to drop past round eight, be sure to snag him as he could easily end up as a top 100 fantasy contributor (much higher than his 155 overall rank by Yahoo).
CENTER
Tomas Plekanec
Mr. Reliable, Mr. Consistent, Mr. Underrated. Whatever you choose to call Tomas Plekanec, nobody can refute the fact that he has been a very reliable fantasy option over his career. Over the past 8 seasons (not including the lockout shortened season), Plekanec has only dipped below 40 points in one season, also managing to score 20 or more goals in all but one season over that span.
The Czech Rebublic native is one of those players that has a higher value to his NHL team than he does to any fantasy team (as evident by his 170 overall rating by Yahoo), as his defensive abilities are unparalleled on the Canadiens. Due to his defensive prowess, one can expect him to log a healthy amount of penalty killing time and as an added bonus, Plekanec has also scored 9 short handed over the past four seasons (placing him first among the Habs in that span).
In terms of ice time and shooting percentage, his numbers have changed ever so slightly over the past three seasons, as his ice time has ranged from 18:54 – 19:42 and his shooting percentage from 10.1% – 10.7%. Does your league count faceoff wins? Well (outside of the lockout shortened season), Plekanec hasn’t had less than 777 over the course of a season since 2008-09.
While the Canadiens are going through a bit of a lineup change with Alex Galchenyuk taking a turn at center this upcoming season, in the worst case scenario Plekanec will still start as the second line center. Some may be concerned about his age and contract situation, but Plekanec has showed in the past that contractual situations doesn’t affect his play (he had a career-high 70 points in the 2009-10 season before he signed his most recent contract). In terms of his age, all signs from his overall play last season showed absolutely no signs of slowing down, and in fantasy terms he actually improved drastically over his previous season.
My Prediction: Although Plekanec may not produce as he did last season, it is safe to expect at least 20 goals and 50 points. From those 50 points, 13-14 should come from the man-advantage and 2-3 goals will come from the penalty kill. 40 PIMs, 200 shots and over 700 faceoff wins would also be very achievable. With the Center position one of the easiest to fill, Plekanec would make a fine selection in rounds 11-12 if you still have yet to fill your center position.
RIGHT WING
Jason Pominville
I find it absolutely amazing how a trade to a different team and one “down” season since can really drop a players rankings. Jason Pominville, the former Buffalo Sabres captain, was traded from Buffalo to Minnesota in the 2012-13 season, and in turn, his perceived fantasy value dropped. Twice topping 70 points in his time in Buffalo, Pominville was once viewed as a top tier fantasy contributor. While he may no longer reach those point totals again in his career, he is a very safe bet to rebound to 60+ points in 2015-16.
While last season was far from a disappointment, Pominville did see a dip in his production, from 30 goals and 60 points in 2013-14 to 18 goals and 54 points (a 0.66 points per game average). This was his lowest point per game production since his rookie season in 2005-06, and it can be expected to rebound closer to his career high of 0.77 in 2015-16. With Pominville being the epitome of durable NHL players, if he is able to play the full season (as he has over the last four seasons, minus one game), his point total could be estimated at 63 points.
Pominville won’t help you win the Hits, PIM, or +/- categories, but he does contribute nicely in the shots department. Pominville has averaged 2.85 shots per game since the 2005-06 season, putting him in very good position to break the 25 goal barrier. Adding to his value, Pominville is a mainstay on the Minnesota powerplay and has contributed 31 power play points over the past two seasons.
My Prediction: Poiminville could top 25 goals and 65 points this season, easily trumping his yahoo ranking of 179 overall. As mentioned above, he is a good bet to top 230-240 shots and around 15 PPP. Keep an eye out for Pominville in rounds 6-7 as he would make a nice first or second line RW.
DEFENSE
Alex Goligoski
When a team places second in the NHL in goals scored (only a single goal behind the leader), any player who plays on the top two lines is a pretty safe bet to be fantasy relevant. Not only does Goligoski play in the top two lines, he is virtually a guarantee to be on the top pairing of the Dallas Stars defense core. Goligoski’s team also added the offensive juggernaut Patrick Sharp to their offensive core this off season, further increasing their chances of becoming the NHL’s best offense this season.
Alex Goligoski has averaged exactly 0.5 points per game over his career (240 points in 480 games) and although he isn’t a high volume shooter, his passing ability makes up for it. Let’s take a look at Goligoski’s past 3 seasons to get an idea of his consistency:
| Season | Games | Games Missed | Points | Points/Game | Hits | PPP | Shots |
| 2012-13 | 47 | 1 | 27 | 0.57 | 56 | 11 | 80 |
| 2013-14 | 81 | 1 | 42 | 0.52 | 94 | 15 | 141 |
| 2014-15 | 81 | 1 | 36 | 0.44 | 100 | 8 | 122 |
As you can see, Goligoski contributes in many categories and his cap hit is a big reason that the Stars can afford to have such firepower on offense. Goligoski makes a modest 4.6 million dollars and if your league follows a salary cap, than you should definitely seek out Goligoski’s services. To further cement Goligoski’s consistent play, his points per 60 minutes of ice time has been 1.1, 0.9 and 1.0 in his last three consecutive seasons. Look to see Goligoski maintain or even better last seasons stats as he is also only 29 years old.
My Prediction: I predict that Goligoski will again mirror his career statistics and score 40-45 points over another full season, with 10+ PPP and 100+ hits and shots. With these numbers, Goligoski will be a great second pairing defenseman so keep an eye on him in rounds 9-10 of your draft.
GOAL
Corey Crawford
The Chicago Blackhawks have been the envy of the entire NHL over the past 6 seasons; year after year they are forced to trade veterans to fit under the salary cap but have still ended up as the Stanley Cup Champions in three of those seasons. The 30 year old Hawks goaltender, Corey Crawford, has had the luxury of playing behind this phenomenal team for the last five seasons.
The Montreal, Quebec native enjoyed two successful seasons in the QMJHL after getting drafted into the NHL 12 seasons ago in 2003. His Moncton Wildcats team made it all the way to the President’s Cup (QMJHL) final in the 2003-04 season (losing to the eventual Memorial Cup runner-up Gatineau Olympiques) and made it to the second round in the following season. After graduating junior, Crawford moved onto the AHL and helped Chicago’s affiliate make the playoffs five seasons in a row, before finally getting his chance at the NHL.
While playing for the perennial powerhouse Blackhawks, Crawford has registered (or been on pace to register) at least 30 wins in every season he has started. It is also quite evident that the Blackhawks are very careful not to overwork Crawford as he has yet to play less than 57 games or more than 60 games in a full season. Crawford’s GAA and SV% has also been relatively consistent over his career (minus 2 outlier seasons). Having his full season SV% drop below 0.917 once, it is a safe assumption to think Crawford will match or better this number.
My Prediction: As mentioned above, Crawford is a near lock to start 55-60 games this upcoming season and garner 30-32 wins. His career average SV% (0.917) is a very close prediction to what his SV% should be this upcoming season. One negative thing about Crawford is that he has never had more than four shutouts in a season over his career; expecting him to top his career high in this category isn’t a smart idea. Also sporting around a 2.30 GAA, Crawford is a great goalie to draft in all fantasy leagues. All pools are different, so predicting a specific round fo goalies is impossible, but I would rank Crawford as my 8-10th best goalie and draft him accordingly.
Sources: war-on-ice.com , Yahoo Fantasy Sports , NHL.com , Quanthockey.com and Elite Prospects