by Andrew Giesbrecht, Staff Writer and Event Coordinator, All Habs Hockey Magazine

“At the end of the day, he may never be a centreman. Right now it doesn’t look like he ever will be.” – Marc Bergevin

WINNIPEG, MB. — With less than two dozen words, the Canadiens General Manager threw Habs Nation into a tail spin. When Marc Bergevin drafted Alex Galchenyuk 3^rd overall in 2012, he was touted as the centre of the future, a pivotal addition to the young group of players the Habs would build around for years to come.

These comments have fans and analysts questioning Galchenyuk’s development, wondering if he will grow into a first line centre, or if we’ll have to be happy with a highly skilled winger. For what it’s worth, I believe that no matter which position Galchenyuk plays, he will be an excellent addition to the core of this team for years to come.

When looking at Galchenyuk, it’s easy to call out certain aspects of his game; some are lazy narratives, some are true. He doesn’t drive the net like a true power forward. He doesn’t play terribly well in the defensive zone. Moving from narratives to metrics, we see that he plays like a centre, and the best thing for his development may be to endure the defensive lapses for the offensive potential.

Let’s look at some statistics on Alex Galchenyuk, attempting to get a glimpse of when he is most productive on the ice (courtesy of Puckalytics.com.) All of these statistics are 5-on-5, without considering the score in the game (5V5, All Situations). The players I chose to look at were Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais, and Max Pacioretty.

The reasoning behind choosing these players is fairly simple: if I want to see how Galchenyuk plays as a first line centre, I need to align him with the wingers who would compose a Canadiens first line. I also wanted to look at Galchenyuk’s stats on the wing when a large portion of his ice time was spent with either Plekanec (62 per cent) or Desharnais (16 per cent) as the centre.

The first thing I noticed when looking at Galchenyuk’s stats is that Goals For per 60 minutes played (GF60) increases when he is away from these two centreman. If Galchenyuk plays with the first line talent of Pacioretty and Gallagher, his GF60 starts to trend upwards. Galchenyuk is a little better playing with Gallagher, and nearly a full goal per 60 minutes more productive when playing with Pacioretty.

When Galchenyuk was playing with Pacioretty and Gallagher for a brief period in December, it was one of his more productive stints in the bleu, blanc, et rouge. The line combined for 16 points during a five game span, Galchenyuk scored his first NHL hat trick, and things were developing as most fans thought they should. You could see the creativity in his game as he played in an offensive role with the team’s best wingers.

The following graph is my attempt to capture Galchenyuk’s progression as a player. He came in hot during the lockout shortened year, with nearly trhee points per 60 minutes played. His second year, between it being his first full season at the NHL level, and dealing with an injury, we predictably saw his points dip a fair bit. This past year has looked promising at times, most notably when playing with Pacioretty, and his P/60 has climbed back up to a respectable 1.83.

While there are some potentially troubling themes in Galchenyuk’s usage by coach Michel Therrien, what does this mean for his development? If we compare Galchenyuk to other forwards drafted in the first round of 2012, maybe the future isn’t as bad as Bergevin’s comments made it sound.

The next chart tracks all forwards taken within the first 20 picks of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Galchenyuk ranks second behind only Nashville’s Filip Forsberg in P/60. While this is Forsberg’s first full season in the NHL, players from the same draft class tend to mature physically at a similar rate. We do need to temper some expectations, as Alex is still growing into his frame at the age of 21. It’s also interesting to note that Buffalo’s Mikhail Grigorenko, whom many scouts had ranked ahead of Galchenyuk, has so far been a huge disappointment at the professional level.

So what does this all mean? When I look at the whole picture, from management and the coaching staff, and then to Galchenyuk himself, I am a little confused as to the steps they are taking to “protect” him during his development. Yes, as a player develops, a coach wants to provide advantageous matchups. But to me, it seems like the Canadiens braintrust is holding him back by not allowing him the creativity that being the centre in the offensive zone allows.

Therrien’s system does not necessarily allow for this type of offensive creativity without defensive responsibility, and Galchenyuk certainly has some growing up to do in learning and responding to the defensive aspects of the game.

If we look at the data, you can see where he struggles. He’s not great defensively at this stage of his career. But Montreal currently has two fantastic defensive centres in Plekanec and Lars Eller. Surely, between those two lines, they could take some of that pressure off of Galchenyuk, and let him have his way in the offensive zone.

Personally, I think that Galchenyuk should play at centre, and to provide a glimpse into what the Canadiens have for an extended period of time. Match him with Gallagher and Pacioretty at the start of the season, and see if Alex has the makings of a true first line centre.

At the end of the day, I think that these comments are not necessarily an indictment of Galchenyuk’s abilities as a future centre for the Canadiens, but Bergevin attempting to ease the pressure as Galchenyuk continues to develop. Hopefully we watch Galchenyuk take his rightful place on the roster next season.