By J.D. Lagrange, Senior Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

The news of the Montreal Canadiens and his star defenseman P.K. Subban being unable to reach an agreement on a long term contract prior to going to arbitration took everyone by surprise, including Habs’ GM Marc Bergevin who strongly believed that a deal could be reached at the eleventh hour, according to Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. The news of them agreeing to an eight year, $72 million deal prior to the arbitrator rendering her decision was even more surprising as Don Meehan had said that the talks were over.

PENTICTON, BC. – Rewind to Friday afternoon for a minute.  Even though the arbitration process is very much damaging to the relationship between player and management, it was still a shock to see Subban not appearing to be his usual happy self during the sessions’ breaks. In interviews afterwards, he even qualified the situation as a learning process, saying that he learned a lot, specifically the business side of hockey. Whichever way you want to spin this, it was not a desirable situation.

Reporters present at the hearing reported that Bergevin oozed frustration after the hearing, which is a telling story. He didn’t want to do this, he wanted a deal done. Forget the $5.25M and $8.5M offers presented in front of the arbitrator, as those were not the numbers discussed for a long term contract and both sides know that the arbitrator would likely pick a number somewhere in between. We have to respect, even admire the fact that both Bergevin and Meehan kept the negotiations secret, refusing to bargain through the media. But wouldn’t we like to know, as fans, as media, where both parties stood in order to be unable to reach an agreement before this painful arbitration process?

And that’s the main reason why one should be careful before putting the blame on one side or the other. Without knowing the facts, it’s ridiculous to claim that the bridge deal signed by Subban two years ago was a mistake. They could have very well reached an agreement this week regardless and the bridge deal, signed when the salary cap was going down with the new CBA, and it would be a non-factor. The Canadiens signed Subban with bridge deal knowing that he’d get a big pay raise. The problem was determining how much he’s now worth.

Reading some fans’ and media members’ reaction prior to today’s signing, Bergevin was a failure and the onus was all on him to make a deal happen, even if it meant giving Subban anything he wanted. And that’s why, folks, we are fans. That’s why, they are members of the media. That’s why those critics don’t manage an NHL team. It’s all nice to say, to write anywhere, to go with the flow, but that’s not how it works (or should work) in real life, when cap hit, team structures, real salaries and trying to ice a competitive team are your livelihood.

The “What if” question

Claiming that Subban had the big part of the stick in this negotiation could not be further from the truth. He was a RFA, not a UFA (yet) but as time passes, the more the momentum would swing in the player’s favour… and Marc Bergevin knew that. Prior to signing this lucrative extension, Subban did not have a no-trade clause so he could have been traded to any of the 29 other teams assuming that the Canadiens didn’t feel that they could reach a reasonable deal with their star defenseman. Forget Roberto Luongo, Ryan Kesler, and the Jarome Iginla deals as they all had a NTC, limiting the market, therefore lowering the demand and the possibility to get more for them.

Had Marc Bergevin put P.K. Subban’s name on the market, you can bet that most NHL teams would have come knocking at the door to see what the Habs would be looking for in return and it wouldn’t come cheap! Would have this situation been ideal? Absolutely not. Would it have been a possibility? You bet it would, and a real one.

What would the Canadiens have been looking for in a return, what are their biggest needs? For one, it would be unlikely that they’d get a similar return one-for-one on defense. The team trading for Subban would have wanted to fill a need at that position, meaning that they likely won’t already have a player like him on their blue line. Having said that, it doesn’t mean that another quality defenseman couldn’t or wouldn’t be included in a return. The Canadiens would most definitely be looking for a top end quality, likely a top 3 forward with character, one that could have helped the team offensively. Seeing that Bergevin values draft picks and believes in building through the draft, a high pick (first or second round) would also likely be targeted. Could Subban, in a bidding war, fetch a top 6 forward, a quality right-handed defenseman and a high pick? I believe he would.

The Edmonton Oilers are the first ones coming to mind when Subban is mentioned. They have a lot of young offensive talent up front but they desperately need help at the back end. Jordan Eberle, David Perron, Nail Yakupov are forwards that the Oilers would likely have no problems parting with, and Justin Schultz is a right-handed defenseman.

The Winnipeg Jets need to make some changes and rumours have constantly been surrounding the team, most notably young winger Evander Kane and veteran Dustin Byfuglien. Would the Jets be tempted to get their hands on Subban in a deal for Kane and one of Jacob Truba or Zach Bogosian?

Could the Carolina Hurricanes, desperate to change things around, be tempted to offer Jeff Skinner and perhaps Justin Faulk in order to get a true force at the blue line?

The Columbus Blue Jackets are a team trying to turn the corner after having a taste of the playoffs last year. A player like Subban, a big name, might be very tempting and young guns Boone Jenner and David Savard could have been of interest for Marc Bergevin.

Everybody knows that Subban and John Tavares are good friends. The New York Islanders are loaded with good young prospects, due to their lack of success on the ice in the last few years. Kyle Okposo is a Marc Bergevin-type player and Travis Hamonic is a solid all around defenseman. Ryan Strome, Michael Dal Colle and Griffin Reinhart are extremely interesting prospects as well.

One cannot mention a big name like Subban without having to include the New York Rangers, who would certainly be sniffing around. A guy like Dan Girardi would be a good fit in Montreal and they have plenty of young forwards who could step right in, most notably Chris Kreider, Carl Hagelin or Derek Stephan. Would Bergevin have been tempted to take a chance with Rick Nash?

Like for the Rangers, you know that the Philadelphia Flyers would be all over Subban, as they were on Shea Weber a couple of years ago. Defensemen Braydon Coburn and Luke Schenn are interesting, while Braydon Schenn, Wayne Simmonds and Sean Couturier would be of interest in Montreal. Of course Claude Giroux would be as well but it’s doubtful that the Flyers would part with their captain.

After yet another disappointing exit from the playoffs last year, don’t count out the San Jose Sharks, who want and need some change. Losing Dan Boyle, they would be interested in Subban for sure. Jason Demers and Marc-Edward Vlasic on defense would likely interest the Canadiens, and Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Tommy Wingels and Tomas Hertl are more than interesting as well.

The Toronto Maple Leafs would love to have Subban, a local product, in their line-up but the asking price to trade him within the division to a big rival might be too much for them to handle… although they’ve traded with Boston in the past on major deals. But would Bergevin dare doing this? Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk or Nazem Kadri would be the forwards targeted, while Cody Franson, whom the Habs tried to get for Josh Gorges, would be of interest on right defense.

The Vancouver Canucks are re-structuring their team after former GM Mike Gillis almost destroyed what previous GMs had started to build into a respectable franchise. The problem is that the Canucks don’t have a lot of top end talent at forward beyond the Sedin brothers. Zack Kassian seems to be coming into his own but he’s no material in a trade for Subban, although Chris Tanev and Kevin Bieksa would look great in a Habs’ uniform.

I’m hoping that people won’t read the above mentioned players as a simple trade for Subban alone, as other players, picks and or prospects would have to be added one way or another. The purpose of the exercise is not to find value for Subban, but rather to see which teams might have had a certain degree of interest in him in a trade, and possibly what they could offer, or what the Canadiens could have been  looking for in return.

And that’s not saying that the teams not mentioned wouldn’t try to get him or couldn’t come up with a serious offer, as we don’t know the level of desperation, or of interest, teams would have for Subban. But rest assured that if Subban’s name was placed on the trade market, there would be a huge demand, regardless of what some people claim.

Fans all wanted Subban to sign long term with the Canadiens and now he finally did. The question to ask is are the Habs a better team with Subban in the line-up with his $9M cap hit or without him and also what could be acquired in return. And that’s the job of GM Marc Bergevin to assess. Given that he was nominated for GM of the year in both his first two years at the helm, given that he has already taken a team that finished 28th overall to a couple of games from the Stanley Cup finals in this short time span, fans and media need to relax and trust the man.

Marc Bergevin is the best thing that has happened to this franchise in the past 20 plus years and I have full confidence in him. Having said that, he has just gambled a huge deal in making of Subban the highest cap hit defenseman in the entire NHL and giving him a full no-movement clause, earning twice as much as Max Pacioretty and $2.5 million more than the true team MVP in Carey Price. It will now be to P.K. Subban to not let his GM, his team and his fans down. The pressure is now officially on.

Go Habs Go!