The Habs Are Better Without Pierre-Luc Dubois | Montreal Canadiens, Columbus Blue Jackets, Winnipeg Jets, Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Alexander Romanov, Patrik Laine
ROCKET SPORTS MEDIA — Prior to the 2020 NHL playoff bubble last summer, I could have never imagined making this statement! Ever since my first exposure to Pierre-Luc Dubois in the 2015-2016 season, I have been fascinated by the young pivots vision, drive, and composure. In his sophomore QMJHL season, Dubois exploded with 42 goals, 57 assists for 99 points.
“The Montreal Canadiens did not need Pierre-Luc Dubois.” — Mike Raschle, January 2021
You may recall that around this time, the Montreal Canadiens were in the second year of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance hangover. They were playing out the course of the season at a .500 winning percentage pace with a flawed roster that featured some nice high-end pieces in Carey Price, Andrei Markov, P.K. Subban, and Max Pacioretty, but as usual, there was no true first line center.
Good but not elite
Tomas Plekanec, David Desharnais, and Lars Eller all played the center position with respectable results. All three pivots are very versatile and useful players in their respective careers, but none of them were ever capable of being a first line center. This was around the time I started getting curious on what the draft options were at the position.
Of course, Montreal did have Alex Galchenyuk on the team as well. He was in his fourth year at this point, posting a career best 56-point season, but his big flaw, was he could not grab that number one center position. Lack of play driving ability, faceoff skill and even poise all ended up holding him back. These were all skills I was now starting to witness from the young pivot I started to projected as the best option to solve the Canadiens decade long problem, Pierre-Luc Dubois.
As the year went on, Dubois was fortunate to play on a line with a young Russian named Evgeny Svechnikov, now of the Detroit Red Wings. Even though you may be more familiar with his brother`s work in the NHL, Andrei Svechnikov of the Carolina Hurricanes, the eldest Svechnikov was an absolute stud in the QMJHL, posting 78 and 79 points in his two seasons of junior. That’s a 1.5 points per game pace. This may seem irrelevant right now, but will prove to be very important when breaking down whom Dubois has had the pleasure to play with in his young career.
2016 NHL Entry Draft
Lets get right to the 2016 Draft, shall we?
Montreal had the chance to pick ninth overall that year. Unfortunately, from a development perspective, the team held its own down the stretch and narrowly missed out on the playoffs. Landing them in? You guessed it: the merky middle. Typically around the 9-10 spots of the draft, teams are out of the ‘franchise-altering player’ zone and more into the ‘solid career NHLer’ area.
At the 2016 NHL Entry Draft held in Buffalo, New York, Columbus Blue Jackets General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen selected Dubois third overall.
The Ste-Agathe-Des-Monts, Quebec native had just completed his third year in the QMJHL, posting 21 goals, 34 assists for 55 points in 48 games split between the Cape Breton Eagles and the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. Dubois also represented Canada at the 2017 World Junior Championships held jointly in Toronto and Montreal. On a star-studded roster featuring All-Star Thomas Chabot, Calder winner Mathew Barzal, and recent Stanley Cup Champion Anthony Cirelli, Dubois posted five assists in seven games, leading Canada to a silver medal.
Bergevin eyes Dubois
Dubois had an impressive junior hockey resume, to say the least. The third overall selection was unexpected by many pundits but was warranted. Hot on the trail of Dubois was Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin. The Canadiens coveted the Quebec-born center and Bergevin was prepared to doing anything to land him.
My colleagues at the Draft witnessed several conversations on the draft floor, one quite heated, between Bergevin and Kekalainen regarding his selection. That said, Jarmo stuck to his guns and selected his guy.
We later learned that a trade was in place that would have sent Subban to Vancouver for the Canucks fifth overall selection provided that Dubois was still available. Bergevin sought confirmation before pulling the trigger. Kekalainen refused and the trade fell through.
With their ninth overall selection, the Canadiens selected Mikhail Sergachev, a young Russian defenceman, who was playing for the Windsor Spitfires of the Ontario Hockey League.
Drouin doesn’t fit the bill
Sergachev was a great selection, but Bergevin, bowing to the pressure from media and fans for a home-grown star, traded Mikhail a year later to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Jonathan Drouin. Bolts GM Steve Yzerman was willing to trade a young, up and coming playmaker that excelled with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, recording back-to-back 100+ point seasons after Drouin staged a holdout.
In Montreal, Habs management had hoped to convert Drouin to be the next great first line center but those lofty goals never materialized. Drouin, is a very serviceable top-6 winger who has blossomed into an inconsistent playmaker. While Drouin has had short periods of success, his play is not what Bergevin envisioned when giving up the top defensive prospect in the organization. Marc wanted a first line center.
So here we are in January 2021. And just over a week ago, there was word from Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella that one of my favourite up-and-coming centers wanted out of Columbus and was available. Dubois is a player Bergevin has clearly coveted for quite some time. We learned that not only was PLD available but his preferred destination was Montreal.
Pierre-Luc Dubois first destination choice is @CanadiensMTL The @BlueJacketsNHL ask is now focused around Nick Suzuki / plus. Romanov has been deemed untouchable. Would you do it if your Marc Bergevin? @Line_Movement
— Nick Kypreos (@RealKyper) January 14, 2021
Should Montreal have pulled the trigger on a trade?
Typically, this answer should have been a resounding “YES!”
But a lot has changed since 2016. Since dealing Subban, Paciorietty and Galchenyuk, the Canadiens have taken a much more patient approach. Instead, there has been a focus to load up on draft selections and choose a more disciplined path with prospect development. This process is starting to pay off in spades especially at the center position. That of course, is the position that has arguably been the weakest for the organization for over a decade now.
The current depth chart at center features: Philip Danault, Nick Suzuki, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jake Evans and Ryan Poehling. All but one of these players (Danault) was drafted after the team started a sell off to on a deep playoff run in the spring of 2014.
All of a sudden, this is now the deepest the organization has been at the position since I can remember. Arguably, three of those pieces can make a claim for that first line role right now.
Phillip Danault
Danault is in the last year of a team-friendly bridge deal paying him just over $3 million per season. He will be an unrestricted free agent at seasons end. Danault is the current recipient of the first line role.
Danault has held that role for close to three seasons now and has performed admirably with frequent line mates Brendan Gallagher and Tomas Tatar. Together, they have combined to put up some of the best possession numbers in the league the last two seasons, while also being responsible in their own end.
As sexy as those numbers may look, possession does not directly correlate to offensive success. Danault has shown in those three seasons that he can be relied upon to put up a 50-point pace over a full 82 game season, his highest output coming in 2018-2019, where he posted 12 goals and 41 assists for 53 points. They are commendable numbers, while also being defensively responsible, but not the output expected from a first line center.
Even more so, when you take his age, soon to turn 28, into consideration. Most offensive NHL players hit their prime at the age of 25-30. That does not leave much room for the significant offensive improvement needed to justify being a number one center in this league.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Kotkaniemi, the young Finn, was selected with the third overall pick by the Canadiens in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft held in Dallas, Texas. Initially projected as a mid-round pick, Jesperi jumped up the draft board as Canadiens Assistant GM Trevor Timmins hand-picked him as the top center in the draft.
Following the draft, Kotkaniemi made the team out of training camp and had a respectable rookie season, posting 11 goals and 23 assists for 34 points. Unlike Danault, Kotkaniemi was used all over the lineup and never really got a chance to develop much chemistry with any consistent linemates.
During the pandemic shortened season, Kotkaniemi regressed slightly and spent the last 13 regular season games in the American Hockey League with the Laval Rocket. He was clearly disappointed by the demotion, but performed admirably once he settled in. Kotkaniemi got the opportunity to play in all situations registering one goal and 12 assists, a point of game pace. Unfortunately, his season was ended by a spleen injury.
KK reborn
When the NHL playoff bubble in the summer of 2020 started, Kotkaniemi looked like a player poised to carve out a consistent role on the young Habs. He came back stronger, faster and with a shot that all of a sudden he was not so hesitant to release. He scored four goals in 10 games during the Habs brief, but impressive, 2020 playoff run.
He comes into this season ready to take the next step. You can start to see the potential being realized here. If the shot numbers keep climbing, Kotkaniemi can be utilized on special teams and play with consistent line-mates, then I think he has the potential to be a 70-80 points per season player.
His biggest opportunities continue to be the defensive side of the game and I believe those improvements will come with time. For now, being paired with a two-way stud like Artturi Lehkonen will protect Kotkaniemi from being exposed.
Nick Suzuki
After being acquired from Las Vegas in the Max Pacioretty trade, the 2017 13th overall pick excelled in his final season in the Ontario Hockey League. Splitting time with the Owen Sound Attack and Guelph Storm, the now 21 year-old center, posted 94 points in 59 games. He stepped it up in the playoffs, putting up 16 goals and 26 assists for 42 points in only 24 games, leading the Storm to an OHL Championship and later a CHL Memorial Cup Championship as well.
In the fall of 2019, Suzuki arrived at Canadiens camp with the same confidence and determination that Jesperi Kotkaniemi showed a year prior, and made the team out of camp without much hesitation from management. Nick proved the decision was the correct one by posting 13 goals and 28 assists for 41 points in 71 games. He really flourished in the playoffs, where he recorded four goal and three assists for seven points in 10 games.
Suzuki is soaring
Suzuki`s work ethic is his trademark. He is relentless in pursuit of the puck. Even at his smaller stature of 5-feet 11-inches, Nick wins puck battles all over the ice and already back-checks like a veteran pivot. The two-way game presented so far has drawn lofty comparisons to Boston Bruins legend Patrice Bergeron.
Suzuki comes into this season ready to prove he belongs in the top-6. I think Suzuki has the highest ceiling of all of the center pieces in the organization and can develop into that first line pivot the Montreal Canadiens have craved for over a decade now. His shiftiness, play-driving ability and quick cuts position Nick Suzuki to be an elite playmaking center in the next year or two.
I project Suzuki to become a consistent point-per-game player by the end of 2021-2022. Combine his playmaking ability with a high hockey I.Q. and a two-way game that already looks established, and you have yourself the potential for a very special player.
Would Dubois have been a fit with this current core?
In my opinion, the quick answer is ‘no.’ After considerable research, the answer is still ‘no.’
You can see from the beginning of this article how hard it is for me to get to this conclusion, but the current Habs did not need to trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois. In my analysis, they already have a better version of this player in Nick Suzuki right now.
Furthermore, Montreal may have two players better than Dubois by the end of this season if Kotkaniemi can continue his current trajectory. Those two, combined with Phillip Danault for at least the end of this season, form a formidable middle of the ice.
Pierre-Luc Dubois showed a nice trajectory as well upon entering the league. He has posted 48, 61, and 49 point seasons, with the highlight being a 27-goal campaign in 2018-2019. My concern is he has not taken that next step.
Habs Dubois plateaued?
Throughout his short three-year NHL career to date, Dubois has been fortunate to be paired with excellent, dare I say elite line-mates. That is a luxury that Suzuki and Kotkaniemi have not had to date.
From Artemi Panarin, to Matt Duchene, to Oliver Bjorkstrand, Dubois has had the chance to play with high-end talent dating back as far as junior in Svechnikov. Yet, Dubois still only projects to produce, on average a 50-60 point season.
That is an average that is much lower then what Suzuki has already achieved and significantly lower then what I project for both Nick and Jesperi to produce in their primes. I can see Dubois hitting his ceiling soon, and the situation he had created for himself in Columbus did not help his case.
Dubois to Winnipeg
Concerns over wanting a bigger market, a bigger stage, and more financial commitment along with term have all been raised over the fall of 2020. A 22-year-old that has been gifted a top-six role from day one of rookie camp, with ample ice-time, high-end line-mates and a fresh two-year $10 million bridge contract had asked for a trade. Those optics alone kept many teams away from Dubois.
The final list of three candidate teams, as reported by Pierre Lebrun of TSN on the morning of January 23rd, included the Canadiens. Then, we learned that the Winnipeg Jets landed the young pivot in exchange for sniper Patrik Laine and young center prospect Jack Roslevic. It was reported late in 2020 that both of those players also asked for trades.
Now that we have the details of the trade, we can assume that Kekalainen was targeting one of the young centers in Montreal. Based on the return, he likely wanted even more then that as well. I am relieved that Bergevin backed off, not only keeping our core in place, but also keeping that core under control.
Both Suzuki and Kotkaniemi are still in their respective entry-level contracts, meaning Bergevin can now decide if he wants to offer a short-term bridge, or a long-term contract. Dubois is already on that bridge deal and likely will have commanded top dollar after that deal is up.
The last straw
On January 21st, 2021, Dubois appeared in his final game with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He was benched by coach Tortorella for lack of effort in that game vs Tampa Bay, finishing with less then four minutes of total ice-time. After the game, long time line-mate Bjorkstrand refused to comment on Dubois’ effort and subsequent benching. Instead opting for repetitive “no comment” responses. This was a telling sign when even Dubois’ teammates no longer had his back.
This ended up being the final straw. And as we know, Kekelainen traded Dubois just a short time later on Saturday.
Dubois has hinted loudly of wanting a bigger stage to play on and it was rumoured that he would have welcomed a trade to Montreal. The Bell Centre would certainly have been that stage in a province where every game, shift, and pass is scrutinized. Dubois has not had many chances on that stage, but the ones he did have, were not as successful as I am sure he would have wanted.
In international play, Dubois represented Canada at the U18 Hlinka and the U20 World Juniors. In 13 games, he recorded no goals and six assists. In the QMJHL final in 2016-2017, Dubois`s Armada were swept by the Saint Johns Sea Dogs. He only recorded one point and was a minus-5.
Pierre-Luc Dubois was, at one point, a nice fit for the Canadiens, and possibly many teams. Fortunately for the Habs, smart and targeted positional drafting has led to a surplus at his position making him a piece that just did not make sense in 2021.
Habs firmly in the hands of Suzuki, Kotkaniemi
Not trading for Dubois is a huge compliment to the current center depth and should be a boost of confidence that can help the young core continue to develop. As for Dubois, his work-horse mentality on the ice is bound to return once he settles in with his new Jets teammates. I look forward to seeing many of his highlight reels, just not as much as I look forward to seeing the young studs up the middle in Montreal.
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For more on Dubois, please welcome our newest Rocket Sports contributor, Carly Prawdzik. Her article titled Should Habs Fans Get Excited About PLD? is from a fan’s perspective. She does an excellent job breaking down what a possible PLD to Habs trade could have looked like and how the pieces would have fit.
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You can also check out last week’s episode of the Canadiens Connection podcast, where Rick and Joseph broke down the Dubois situation in Columbus and gave their perspectives.
By Mike Raschle, Staff Writer
All Habs Hockey Magazine
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