By Antoine Mathieu, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine
QUEBEC CITY, QC. — To kick off the ‘30 teams in 30 days‘ look at the 2014-15 NHL season, let’s look at my pick for the franchise that should find themselves atop the Atlantic Division standings when the regular season ends.
2014-15 ATLANTIC DIVISION
- Tampa Bay Lightning
2013-’14 summary: Tampa Bay Lightning
Regular season record of 46 – 27 – 9, 101 points, 3rd in the East, eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in four games.
I’m aware that the Lightning’s quick elimination against the Canadiens may be fresh in the memories of some fans but I don’t think that series gave us an accurate impression of this team. Here’s the big ‘what if’ of the series that was asked many times: what if Tampa’s number one goalie Ben Bishop was healthy? I don’t think I have to remind many Habs fans that Montreal struggled heavily to put goals past Bishop last season. In the four games that the Canadiens played versus the Lightning, the Tricolore only scored four goals total. In my opinion, Bishop, who was a finalist for the Vezina trophy, could have changed the playoff series in a big way but instead, Anders Lindback was in net and his play was underwhelming to say the least.
I’m pretty sure most of us can relate to the situation considering the lack of success by the Habs when Carey Price missed games due to injuries. If it hadn’t been for Dustin Tokarski‘s heroic performance in the playoffs, the third round series with the New York Rangers wouldn’t have gone to six games. To no surprise, Lindback who’s never been more than an average goaltender, choked under the immense pressure.
It’s hard for a team, especially as inexperienced as the Lightning were in that series (13 of the players that suited up for Tampa had yet to play in an NHL playoffs game), to have a positive mindset and play loose when the goalie couldn’t be trusted to make a routine save. Take for example Game 3 where Rene Bourque scored in the opening seconds of the game. That’s a save that Lindback should have made and just like that, the game has barely started and the Lightning are trailing in a game that’s just a couple of seconds old in a series where they were already down two games. It’s tough to overcome.
I’m not going to put the entire blame on Lindback for the Lightning getting swept. Some of the responsibility can be placed on their defense: Radko Gudas was terrible (especially his skating); Keith Aulie, Mike Kostka and Mark Barberio shouldn’t be playing on a playoff team; Matt Carle handled the puck like a grenade the whole series. Bolts GM Steve Yzerman addressed that need by making off-season acquisitions of Jason Garrison and Anton Stralman (who are both top four defensemen in my books.)
The acquisition of Garrison and Stralman allows for some of the Lightning defenders to play to their original role: Carle was playing shutdown minutes last season and Gudas was playing too many minutes (19:07 TOI per game) considering the demanding style he plays. Stralman should play the minutes that Carle was eating and Gudas, who was exhausted in the second half (including the playoffs), should move down to the bottom pair where he’ll play around 16 minutes a night. Also, Tampa Bay’s coach, Jon Cooper, loves to split duties between his two pairings so this influx of depth will definitely be appreciated by him.
Many experts don’t expect Bishop to repeat the season he had this year. His save percentage was quite high (.924 and would have been higher if didn’t play through those injuries) but I honestly don’t expect that big of a regression from the 6’7″ goalie next season. His technique is sound, he doesn’t really have any glaring weaknesses and he seems to have finally found his mojo at the age of 27. Plus with the additions on defense, I think that will minimize any potential slide back in his numbers.
Another element not to overlook is that, knock on wood, Steven Stamkos should play more than the 37 games he played last season after breaking his tibia against Boston. His 17 points in 20 games demonstrates that his injury didn’t affect his play at all. Some detractors might argue that Stamkos’ return will compensate for the loss of Martin St. Louis but I don’t necessarily agree with that assessment. Statistics prove that Ondrej Palat carried St. Louis this season and given his age (he turned 39 years old last June) I expect a significant decline in St. Louis’ game. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that his production dropped following his trade to the Big Apple.
Ah, the notorious sophomore slump! Who will struggle and who will keep progressing? We’ve seen players like Jonathan Huberdeau and Nail Yakupov experience a fall back last season and they won’t be the last ones. I think that Tyler Johnson is a good candidate for the Lightning for potential sophomore slump victims. On the other hand, Palat should continue to progress and continue right where he left off last season. To give you an idea of how well the young Czech forward played, have a look at the following numbers. Palat started off the season with only 15 points in 39 games playing mostly a defensive role. Once Cooper started giving Palat offensive minutes, his stats skyrocketed: 44 points in a 42 game stretch. Focusing on just the 19 games after St. Louis was traded, we see that Palat was able to maintain his production with 22 points even without his more well-known linemate.
I pointed out earlier that the Lightning were very inexperienced in the playoffs last year. In the off-season, Yzerman also addressed this. The additions of Brian Boyle, Brenden Morrow and Evgeni Nabokov add a ton of experience to a very young roster. There are almost 2000 NHL games of experience with these three combined! Nabokov is a much more reliable option than Lindback and even at his age, he remains a solid option as a back-up goaltender. Boyle, who replaces Nate Thompson, brings much needed size to a relatively small group of forwards (besides Boyle, only one forward is above 6’1″ in height.) Although Morrow isn’t the player he was four years ago, having him on a fourth line is a nice luxury and he should act as one of the vocal leaders in the room considering he was a previous captain of the Dallas Stars.
Oh and how could I could I forget. The Lightning added the final piece of the puzzle with the one and only (former Habs / Bulldogs player): Mike Blunden!
But seriously, the Lightning have a very young team and I think it’s pretty fair to assume that most of their players are going to keep getting better. Victor Hedman emerged this year as a No. 1 defenseman and justified why he was picked second overall back in the 2009 NHL draft. Stamkos could very well score 60 goals next season. The team has a great supporting cast consisting of Valtteri Filppula and Ryan Callahan to help provide offense plus Stralman and Garrison to bolster the defense. They have a promising group of young players such as Palat, Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin, J.T. Brown, Alex Killorn and Brett Connolly. They will have defenseman like Eric Brewer and Gudas playing on their bottom pairing which is as good as it gets.
Quick facts about the Lightning:
- top-10 for goals for in 2013-14 without Stamkos for most the year. They were 13th in the NHL on the power-play. With a healthy Stamkos, they should be top-10 in that category.
- 23rd in the league on the penalty-kill in 2013-14. The additions of Boyle up front and Stralman on defense should help the Lightning be a much more efficient team with a man down.
- 19th in the league in faceoffs. Adding a solid guy like Boyle should definitely help them in that department.
On Sunday, I will reveal who I think will lead the Metropolitan division next season!
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