By Antoine Mathieu, Staff Writer, All Habs Hockey Magazine

QUEBEC CITY, QC. —

2014-15 EASTERN CONFERENCE predicted standings

1. Tampa Bay Lightning
2. Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Boston Bruins
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. New York Rangers
6. Montreal Canadiens

2013-14 summary: Montreal Canadiens

Regular season record: 46 —  28 —  8, 100 points, 4th in East, eliminated in the Eastern Conference finals in six games.

After being eliminated in six games by the Rangers, millions of fans are wondering what’s next for their beloved Habs. Was this a fluke?

Unlike 2010, I can say with confidence: no. In 2010 our magical run was a product of Jaroslav Halak becoming a cult hero and clutch scoring from Mike Cammalleri. All that magic ran its course when they faced a team with good defense and a group of forwards not afraid of crashing the net in the Flyers.

However, this 2014 run was a whole different story. In their ten wins these playoffs, Montreal had seven different scorers for the game winning goal. A multitude of players contributed in their own ways: Mike Weaver with his blocked shots, Dale Weise establishing himself as a bottom six player in the NHL, Daniel Brière keeping his playoff reputation alive, Max Pacioretty producing when it matters most, PK Subban playing excellent hockey, etc. This team won, and ultimately lost, as a team. On many occasions during these playoffs, Montreal had every line contribute a goal, this shows the kind of depth that they had and why they went so far.

One thing is for sure, Montreal proved a lot of ‘experts’ wrong and showed that you can go far in the playoffs even if you don’t have the biggest team. The Canadiens and the Rangers are a testament to that with players like Mats Zuccarello, Martin St-Louis, Brendan Gallagher and David Desharnais all playing important roles on their respective teams.

Is Montreal a better team than they were last year? Yes and no.

Yes, they are better defensively with the departures of Francis Bouillon, Douglas Murray and Josh Gorges. The first two were fringe NHLers this year and they combined for 117 games this year (including 12 playoffs games). Replacing these two with Jarred Tinordi, Nathan Beaulieu or Mike Weaver is a clear upgrade.

The loss of Gorges might hurt the team though. Josh Gorges is what he is, an undersized defenseman who will sacrifice his body at all cost to ensure victory. Like a married couple, after eight years of being with the same person, you start noticing their flaws a lot more than when you first started dating them. Gorges is completely inept with the puck and isn’t the fastest skater or the strongest guy on the ice, he realizes that and that’s why he made a name for himself as a character guy who blocks shots.

It’s a fact that due to Gorges’ inability to make an effective breakout and his subpar defensive skills, the Canadiens were pinned in their own end most of the time. It happened a lot in the past playoffs and I think it’s that aspect of his game that lead to him being dealt (along with his salary). As shown by the acquisition of Mike Weaver at the past trade deadline, players like Gorges aren’t that hard to replace.

Tom Gilbert is an effective defenseman in his own end and he possesses a solid first pass. He brings a ton of experience (over 500 NHL games under his belt) and I believe he’s a bigger and more offensively proven version of Raphael Diaz. Gilbert has great gap control like Gorges and is not afraid to block shots (604 blocks in his career) but unlike Gorges, he can make a solid breakout pass. I believe management felt that this was an area where they could improve on. I wouldn’t say it’s too farfetched to put some of the blame for our Even Strength struggles on our lack of puck moving defensemen.

It will also help that the influx of right handed defenseman will alow Alexei Emelin to play on his natural side. As reported in the past by TSN analyst Ray Ferraro, it usually takes a full calendar year for a player to recover from the injury Emelin experienced. The Russian defender has been at his best in the physical department when he’s on the left side so players will have to look out if they don’t want to get plastered against the boards!

Before the decision to trade Gorges was made, Montreal had too many defensemen who were either average or below average with the puck: Mike Weaver, Alexei Emelin, Jarred Tinordi and Josh Gorges. That’s four defenders who I wouldn’t technically label as wizards with the puck. Adding Gilbert to a group already consisting of PK Subban, Andrei Markov and Nathan Beaulieu legitimizes the Canadiens’ back-end as a scoring threat.

On the other hand, the team regressed offensively. Parenteau is easily better than Briere but fact remains that he’s a player who can’t produce on his own. The 31-year-old needs to play with talented players to be at his best. It was the case with the Islanders (John Tavares) and history repeated itself in Colorado (Matt Duchene). Pacioretty is a good player, don’t get me wrong, but he’s not in the same tier as those guys.

The Canadiens made a tough decision and decided to not bring back their Captain Brian Gionta for next season. Gionta wasn’t the most talented player on the ice but is tenacity was definitely contagious for the players wearing the bleu-blanc-rouge uniform. With his age catching up, his two bicep injuries that took away a lot of his shot and lack of size, the writing was on the wall for the 35-year-old. He’s essentially turned into a 5’7 defensive winger and considering the abundance of small forwards, Gionta was not no longer needed.

Management is relying on one of the kids (Jiri Sekac, Sven Andrighetto, Christian Thomas or Jacob de la Rose) to step up this training camp, similarly to what Michael Bournival did last season, and solidify themselves a spot in the team’s top 9 group of forwards. I don’t think it’s a horrible idea considering the upcoming contract renewals: Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Bournival, Tinordi and Beaulieu.

I have no doubt that one of these players can replace Gionta’s 18 goals. What I’m concerned about is if they can reproduce that same production under the same role that Gionta was filling. Gionta, along with Tomas Plekanec, was playing in a shutdown role. It’s quite exceptional that not only was he able to produce that many goals but that he was able to finish in the plus’ for +/- differential.

Michel Therrien and his coaching staff will have to figure out which player can fill that role. It wouldn’t shock me with the signing of Manny Malhotra that Therrien decides to be more adventurous with his fourth line and give them tougher matchups to give Plekanec more breathing room offensively. Under the right circumstances, the Czech Republican has shown the ability to produce (almost two 70 points seasons under his belt).

Thomas Vanek might not have had the playoffs fans imagined but he added a lot of offensive punch and credibility to Montreal’s offense. As bad as his playoffs might have been (which I found completely overblown by some fans and the media), it’s hard to deny the value he brought to this team. He’s a top 30 forward in the league and arguably a top 10 LWer.

Even when he wasn’t producing, coaches still put a lot of focus on him. A lethal sniper can make you pay at any moment, if you give him too much space or make a costly turnover, he’ll make you pay by burying it in the back of your net. Coaches simply can’t afford to play their bottom pair or fourth line when Vanek is on the ice.

That meant that certain players like Rene Bourque and Lars Eller could benefit from easier match-ups. For example, the game where Bourque had his hat trick against the Rangers. He was matched up against the Rangers’ fourth line and their third or second pairing (32.71% of the time was against the Moore/Klein pairing). Unfortunately for Vanek, although he wasn’t producing, he was either facing their top or second pairing. (source: dobberhockey.com)

The Thomas Vanish jokes might be funny to some but the talented winger played a vital part in Montreal’s playoff push at the end of the season. It’s a fact that Montreal was a better team with him in the line-up, their record (22-11-3) is a testament to that. Bergevin didn’t replace Vanek and it will hurt the Canadiens this season. May I have to remind you that this is a team that were on pace for less than 200 goals before the Vanek acquisition? The whole team will have to redouble one’s efforts because otherwise this will be another season where Price will have to steal games for the Canadiens.

That doesn’t mean that players like Alex Galchenyuk, Rene Bourque, Dale Weise, Lars Eller and Pierre-Alexandre Parenteau can’t cover for the loss of Vanek. This team, at least under the Therrien regime, has always been a team that rolls four lines. This is a team that doesn’t necessarily have a first line or second line, they just give the most minutes to the hottest line on a certain given night.

I expect Rene Bourque to keep his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde act going (invisible in the regular season and sensational in the playoffs). Eller should have a better season but by how much is up to him and the coaching staff. If he doesn’t get quality teammates or time on the power play, you can’t expect miracles. I expect Weise to contribute about a dozen goals and to be used in situations where the team has to protect the lead, similarly to how Gionta was used by Therrien.

I think this is going to be Alex Galchenyuk’s breakout season. As the Rangers’ series unfolded, you could tell that after every game, he was starting to find his groove and I think that was the best Alex Galchenyuk we’ve seen in the NHL. I hope he builds from his great performance in the playoffs and becomes a key contributor for Montreal next season. I would be extremely happy with 55 points and 20 goals.

One thing is certain though; the Habs can’t afford to have Max Pacioretty’s goals totals take a nosedive next season. The American forward played a crucial part in Montreal’s success this year, he had 11 Game Winning Goals, the Canadiens won 40 games in regulation or overtime. That means that Pacioretty ensured a win for the Habs 27.5% of the time! He also scored the first goal in nine different games. We all know as fans how crucial that first goal is under Therrien’s system.

The pessimist in me (or realist, depending on how you see it), feels that Pacioretty will have a good, but not excellent, season. I have a feeling that his 39 goal season will be an anomaly and that he’ll score around 30 goals instead, which is still great production.

Another sure thing is that Carey Price will have to be at the top of his game: Montreal won’t be competitive if he has a subpar season. The soon to be 27-year-old was easily the Canadiens’ MVP last season and it’s a tragedy that he wasn’t even in consideration for the Vezina. The British Columbian proved his worth to the whole hockey world when he lead Canada to back-to-back Gold medals at the Olympics. Price is a vital component in Montreal’s success.

It was fairly obvious in the Rangers’ series how much he means to this team. The players played with a lot less confidence and they almost took certain things for granted when Tokarski was in net. For example, Tokarski wouldn’t move the puck like Price does, hell I don’t blame him! Price is truly one of the best in the league at controlling the puck, he’s almost like a third defender out there. How many times have we seen Price clear the puck by himself on the PK or make a quick pass to an open player. We can cross our fingers for a quick rehabilitation for Price so he’s ready before the season starts.

Finally, I hope that Montreal didn’t underestimate the impact in the room of losing two key presences like Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges. One was the captain and the other was seen to be the next in line for the prestigious title. We saw Bryan Murray make that mistake last season with the Senators by letting go of his long time captain Daniel Alfredsson. The team wasn’t the same and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was one of the main reasons behind many of their third period collapses!

Considering the few amount of times the Canadiens have missed the playoffs since the 2004-05 lockout and the success they’ve had under Therrien (75-42-13), it’s hard to not have them in a playoffs spot. Despite the negative things I’ve written about the Habs, they’re still my team and I’m still confident about their abilities. They have top 5 goalie, a top 10 defenseman and a top 30 forward. They have some young guys like Eller, Gallagher, Galchenyuk, Tinordi and Beaulieu who are still developing and their core is relatively young.

Quick facts about Montreal:

• Pacioretty came one goal shy of 40 goals last season, the Canadiens haven’t had a player score 40 for them since Vincent Damphousse in 1993-94, that was 20 years ago! Can he reach that plateau next season?
• If you take out the crazy winning streak Montreal had earlier in the season (9-0-1), Montreal was playing .500 hockey all year (25-22-7). Bergevin made the Vanek acquisition and the team finished strong (12-6-1). Will Montreal be a .500 team or a threat in the East?
• Which Desharnais will we see: the 1 point in 19 games or the 51 points in 59 games?